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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1419

Raphael AssuncaovsMarlon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raphael Assuncao has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Marlon Moraes

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1496

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Marlon MoraesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricMarlon Moraes

3.22

Strikes / min

3.37

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

66%

Strike defense

54%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.87

78%

Takedown defense

46%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoMarlon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.2|Blue -76.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetMarlon Moraes

By target zone

22% acc · 49%

Head

13% acc · 34%

31% acc · 9%

Body

70% acc · 32%

69% acc · 42%

Leg

88% acc · 34%

By position

32% acc · 98%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Marlon Moraes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 134

Sig Strikes

44 / 150

32.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

43 / 134

Total Strikes

44 / 150

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marlon Moraes	14 / 50	14 / 50	0 / 0
1	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 44	13 / 44	0 / 1
2	Marlon Moraes	11 / 44	11 / 44	0 / 1
2	Raphael Assuncao	11 / 50	11 / 50	0 / 0
3	Marlon Moraes	19 / 56	19 / 56	0 / 1
3	Raphael Assuncao	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11