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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1409

Raphael AssuncaovsJohnny EduardoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsJohnny Eduardo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johnny Eduardo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Raphael Assuncao has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Johnny Eduardo has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Johnny Eduardo

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1496

Elo

1409

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Johnny EduardoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 15

KOvs Manvel Gamburyan · Nov 16

KOvs Matthew Lopez · Jun 17

SUBvs Nathaniel Wood · Jun 18

SUBvs Alejandro Perez · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricJohnny Eduardo

3.22

Strikes / min

2.95

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

66%

Strike defense

63%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.22

78%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoJohnny Eduardo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Johnny Eduardo(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.7|Blue -86.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetJohnny Eduardo

By target zone

42% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 54%

78% acc · 13%

Body

64% acc · 25%

93% acc · 26%

Leg

46% acc · 21%

By position

40% acc · 58%

Distance

31% acc · 93%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

92% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Johnny Eduardo rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:34

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:05

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:17

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 101

Sig Strikes

28 / 85

52.3%

Sig Str %

32%

93 / 143

Total Strikes

30 / 88

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

56.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:56

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Johnny Eduardo	7 / 20	9 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 27	25 / 39	1 / 2	0
2	Johnny Eduardo	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Raphael Assuncao	20 / 32	36 / 48	1 / 5	0
3	Johnny Eduardo	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 0	1
3	Raphael Assuncao	20 / 42	32 / 56	1 / 1	0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Johnny Eduardo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8