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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1352

Raphael AssuncaovsIssei TamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:25

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raphael Assuncao has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Issei Tamura

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1496

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Issei Tamura

oldest →

KOvs Tiequan Zhang · Feb 12

KOvs TJ Dillashaw · Mar 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricIssei Tamura

3.22

Strikes / min

1.89

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

66%

Strike defense

44%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.92

78%

Takedown defense

33%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-2.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoIssei Tamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Issei Tamura(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +143.6|Blue -143.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetIssei Tamura

By target zone

44% acc · 36%

Head

38% acc · 100%

85% acc · 28%

Body

0% acc

93% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

62% acc · 79%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

78% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Issei Tamura rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:40

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 60

Sig Strikes

5 / 14

66.5%

Sig Str %

20.5%

42 / 63

Total Strikes

5 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Issei Tamura	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 1
1	Raphael Assuncao	26 / 42	27 / 43	0 / 0
2	Issei Tamura	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0
2	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 18	15 / 20	0 / 0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Issei Tamura

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights3