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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Davey Grant won · SUB R3

Elo1496

Elo1521

Raphael AssuncaovsDavey GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Davey Grant won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:43

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsDavey Grant: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Davey Grant wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Davey Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Davey Grant at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Davey Grant

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-136

(58%)

1496

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Moraes · Feb 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

latest

Davey Grant

oldest →

vs Daniel Marcos · Jul 23

vs Ramon Taveras · Dec 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 25

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Oct 25

DECvs Adrian Luna Martinetti · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricDavey Grant

3.22

Strikes / min

5.58

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

66%

Strike defense

54%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.95

78%

Takedown defense

65%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoDavey Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Davey Grant(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.0|Blue +25.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetDavey Grant

By target zone

55% acc · 38%

Head

31% acc · 43%

100% acc · 19%

Body

64% acc · 28%

86% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

72% acc · 90%

Distance

45% acc · 91%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Davey Grant rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:46

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:38

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control0:53

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 58

Sig Strikes

65 / 138

72%

Sig Str %

47%

67 / 85

Total Strikes

80 / 154

5 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

59.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:17

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Davey Grant	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 19	23 / 31	1 / 1	0
2	Davey Grant	20 / 44	22 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Raphael Assuncao	16 / 20	27 / 31	2 / 4	0
3	Davey Grant	25 / 55	38 / 69	0 / 0	1
3	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 19	17 / 23	2 / 7	0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Davey Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16