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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cory Sandhagen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1484

Raphael AssuncaovsCory SandhagenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Cory Sandhagen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsCory Sandhagen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Cory Sandhagen wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Cory Sandhagen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory Sandhagen at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raphael Assuncao has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cory Sandhagen (52.9%).
Cory Sandhagen has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Cory Sandhagen

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1496

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'11"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Moraes · Feb 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Cory SandhagenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Aug 23

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25

DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricCory Sandhagen

3.22

Strikes / min

4.86

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

66%

Strike defense

56%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

1.15

78%

Takedown defense

56%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoCory Sandhagen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.1|Blue -11.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetCory Sandhagen

By target zone

30% acc · 33%

Head

34% acc · 37%

100% acc · 44%

Body

76% acc · 26%

91% acc · 22%

Leg

82% acc · 37%

By position

46% acc · 67%

Distance

51% acc · 89%

92% acc · 27%

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Cory Sandhagen rounds

Round 1Cory Sandhagen edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:06

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:57

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns3

Control1:07

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 81

Sig Strikes

62 / 116

57.3%

Sig Str %

56.7%

65 / 103

Total Strikes

78 / 135

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

62.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cory Sandhagen	25 / 52	30 / 58	0 / 1
1	Raphael Assuncao	16 / 34	17 / 35	0 / 0
2	Cory Sandhagen	14 / 20	22 / 29	0 / 0
2	Raphael Assuncao	13 / 19	20 / 28	1 / 2
3	Cory Sandhagen	23 / 44	26 / 48	0 / 0
3	Raphael Assuncao	16 / 28	28 / 40	3 / 4

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17