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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Garbrandt won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1487

Raphael AssuncaovsCody GarbrandtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsCody Garbrandt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Cody Garbrandt wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Garbrandt at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Cody Garbrandt

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1496

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Moraes · Feb 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricCody Garbrandt

3.22

Strikes / min

2.79

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

66%

Strike defense

58%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.85

78%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoCody Garbrandt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.3|Blue -8.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetCody Garbrandt

By target zone

16% acc · 24%

Head

29% acc · 37%

18% acc · 12%

Body

40% acc · 11%

69% acc · 65%

Leg

71% acc · 53%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Cody Garbrandt rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 52

Sig Strikes

19 / 43

33%

Sig Str %

43.5%

17 / 52

Total Strikes

20 / 45

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cody Garbrandt	8 / 20	8 / 20	0 / 0
1	Raphael Assuncao	9 / 23	9 / 23	0 / 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	11 / 23	12 / 25	0 / 0
2	Raphael Assuncao	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18