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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1369

Raphael AssuncaovsBryan CarawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsBryan Caraway: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Bryan Caraway

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1496

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricBryan Caraway

3.22

Strikes / min

2.53

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

66%

Strike defense

54%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

2.57

78%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoBryan Caraway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.5|Blue -126.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetBryan Caraway

By target zone

41% acc · 52%

Head

25% acc · 67%

85% acc · 15%

Body

60% acc · 15%

96% acc · 33%

Leg

54% acc · 18%

By position

54% acc · 75%

Distance

30% acc · 87%

64% acc · 24%

Clinch

33% acc · 13%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Bryan Caraway rounds

Round 1Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:06

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Raphael Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:30

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 133

Sig Strikes

39 / 128

56%

Sig Str %

30%

83 / 141

Total Strikes

46 / 139

2 / 6

TDs

2 / 8

44.3%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Caraway	13 / 43	17 / 48	0 / 2
1	Raphael Assuncao	26 / 42	29 / 45	0 / 2
2	Bryan Caraway	15 / 45	15 / 47	2 / 2
2	Raphael Assuncao	25 / 45	27 / 47	1 / 1
3	Bryan Caraway	11 / 40	14 / 44	0 / 4
3	Raphael Assuncao	24 / 46	27 / 49	1 / 3

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10