← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raphael Assuncao won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1524

Raphael AssuncaovsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Raphael Assuncao won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsAljamain Sterling: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raphael Assuncao at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raphael Assuncao has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aljamain Sterling has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raphael Assuncao

Red Corner

Aljamain Sterling

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1496

Elo

1524

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raphael Assuncao

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20

KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21

vs Victor Henry · Oct 22

SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23

latest

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raphael AssuncaoMetricAljamain Sterling

3.22

Strikes / min

4.26

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

66%

Strike defense

59%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

2.54

78%

Takedown defense

44%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raphael AssuncaoAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.7|Blue +28.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -41.0|Blue +41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raphael AssuncaoTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

17% acc · 26%

Head

16% acc · 35%

57% acc · 21%

Body

43% acc · 17%

78% acc · 54%

Leg

64% acc · 48%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raphael Assuncao rounds

even

Aljamain Sterling rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 101

Sig Strikes

52 / 172

40.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

39 / 101

Total Strikes

52 / 172

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aljamain Sterling	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0
1	Raphael Assuncao	16 / 26	16 / 26	0 / 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	13 / 51	13 / 51	0 / 1
2	Raphael Assuncao	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	18 / 75	18 / 75	0 / 2
3	Raphael Assuncao	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0

Raphael Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights19

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23