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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1450

Raoni BarcelosvsTrevin JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Trevin Jones enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Raoni Barcelos has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raoni Barcelos has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Trevin Jones (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Raoni Barcelos

Red Corner

Trevin Jones

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1550

Elo

1450

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raoni BarcelosW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Trevin JonesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Timur Valiev · Aug 20

KOvs Mario Bautista · Mar 21

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Aug 21

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 22

vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raoni BarcelosMetricTrevin Jones

4.65

Strikes / min

2.13

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.29

60%

Strike defense

39%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.62

87%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raoni BarcelosTrevin Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)Trevin Jones(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +99.7|Blue -99.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raoni BarcelosTargetTrevin Jones

By target zone

54% acc · 70%

Head

11% acc · 45%

90% acc · 26%

Body

43% acc · 27%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

52% acc · 53%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

78% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raoni Barcelos rounds

even

Trevin Jones rounds

Round 1Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:10

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control3:04

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control1:53

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 119

Sig Strikes

11 / 57

60.7%

Sig Str %

18.7%

119 / 171

Total Strikes

15 / 61

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trevin Jones	4 / 18	5 / 19	0 / 0
1	Raoni Barcelos	14 / 23	33 / 43	1 / 3
2	Trevin Jones	2 / 12	3 / 13	0 / 1
2	Raoni Barcelos	24 / 40	38 / 59	0 / 1
3	Trevin Jones	5 / 27	7 / 29	0 / 1
3	Raoni Barcelos	35 / 56	48 / 69	1 / 1

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Trevin Jones

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6