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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Timur Valiev won · M-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1494

Raoni BarcelosvsTimur ValievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Timur Valiev won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaoni Barcelos: WrestlervsTimur Valiev: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Timur Valiev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raoni Barcelos has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raoni Barcelos has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raoni Barcelos

Red Corner

Timur Valiev

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1550

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raoni BarcelosW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Timur ValievL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Trevin Jones · Aug 20

vs Jack Shore · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raoni BarcelosMetricTimur Valiev

4.65

Strikes / min

5.19

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

60%

Strike defense

45%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

1.73

87%

Takedown defense

55%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raoni BarcelosTimur Valiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)Timur Valiev(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.8|Blue -55.8

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raoni BarcelosTargetTimur Valiev

By target zone

45% acc · 72%

Head

28% acc · 49%

80% acc · 12%

Body

64% acc · 23%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

84% acc · 27%

By position

47% acc · 77%

Distance

39% acc · 95%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

83% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raoni Barcelos rounds

even

Timur Valiev rounds

Round 1Timur Valiev edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:16

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:07

Knockdowns2

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Timur Valiev edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 131

Sig Strikes

77 / 190

50.7%

Sig Str %

40.3%

81 / 144

Total Strikes

77 / 190

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Timur Valiev	18 / 47	18 / 47	0 / 1
1	Raoni Barcelos	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0
2	Timur Valiev	28 / 59	28 / 59	0 / 2
2	Raoni Barcelos	35 / 60	47 / 73	0 / 0
3	Timur Valiev	31 / 84	31 / 84	0 / 3
3	Raoni Barcelos	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 0

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Timur Valiev

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3