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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1493

Raoni BarcelosvsSaid NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, December 21, 2019Busan, South Korea

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaoni Barcelos: WrestlervsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at -151 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raoni Barcelos has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raoni Barcelos

Red Corner

Said Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

-151

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+129

(44%)

1550

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raoni BarcelosW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raoni BarcelosMetricSaid Nurmagomedov

4.65

Strikes / min

3.08

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

60%

Strike defense

55%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.86

87%

Takedown defense

63%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raoni BarcelosSaid Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.9|Blue -56.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raoni BarcelosTargetSaid Nurmagomedov

By target zone

26% acc · 38%

Head

18% acc · 44%

50% acc · 19%

Body

56% acc · 18%

78% acc · 43%

Leg

91% acc · 38%

By position

38% acc · 76%

Distance

30% acc · 89%

56% acc · 12%

Clinch

40% acc · 4%

83% acc · 12%

Ground

80% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raoni Barcelos rounds

even

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:42

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:55

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 100

Sig Strikes

55 / 172

41.3%

Sig Str %

32.3%

52 / 112

Total Strikes

77 / 200

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Said Nurmagomedov	16 / 66	16 / 67	0 / 1
1	Raoni Barcelos	9 / 26	10 / 27	0 / 2
2	Said Nurmagomedov	23 / 53	30 / 63	0 / 1
2	Raoni Barcelos	20 / 35	25 / 42	1 / 2
3	Said Nurmagomedov	16 / 53	31 / 70	0 / 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	13 / 39	17 / 43	1 / 1

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11