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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · SUB R2

Elo1550

Elo1508

Raoni BarcelosvsChris GutierrezUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:12

Style matchupRaoni Barcelos: WrestlervsChris Gutierrez: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(84.2%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raoni Barcelos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Raoni Barcelos

Red Corner

Chris Gutierrez

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1550

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raoni BarcelosW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs John Castaneda · Apr 25

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raoni BarcelosMetricChris Gutierrez

4.65

Strikes / min

4.40

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

60%

Strike defense

63%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.30

87%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raoni BarcelosChris Gutierrez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.6|Blue -42.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raoni BarcelosTargetChris Gutierrez

By target zone

55% acc · 94%

Head

36% acc · 35%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 6%

Leg

74% acc · 65%

By position

14% acc · 9%

Distance

48% acc · 88%

Clinch

78% acc · 91%

Ground

75% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raoni Barcelos rounds

even

Chris Gutierrez rounds

Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:41

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control3:41

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 63

Sig Strikes

26 / 52

47%

Sig Str %

56%

83 / 118

Total Strikes

32 / 60

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:22

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Gutierrez	20 / 43	25 / 50	0 / 1	0
1	Raoni Barcelos	5 / 21	23 / 43	1 / 1	0
2	Chris Gutierrez	6 / 9	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Raoni Barcelos	30 / 42	60 / 75	1 / 1	1

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14