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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tom Niinimaki won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1354

Rani YahyavsTom NiinimakiUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Saturday, November 30, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tom Niinimaki won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRani Yahya: WrestlervsTom Niinimaki: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Tom Niinimaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Niinimaki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rani Yahya threatens submissions; Tom Niinimaki has lost 100% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya

Red Corner

Tom Niinimaki

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1495

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Tom NiinimakiL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Niklas Backstrom · May 14

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Aug 14

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricTom Niinimaki

1.71

Strikes / min

1.91

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

50%

Strike defense

58%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

2.97

29%

Takedown defense

33%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rani YahyaTom Niinimaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rani Yahya(10 fights)Tom Niinimaki(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.1|Blue -141.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetTom Niinimaki

By target zone

40% acc · 80%

Head

44% acc · 41%

Body

89% acc · 47%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

27% acc · 40%

Distance

38% acc · 18%

60% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 40%

Ground

71% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rani Yahya rounds

even

Tom Niinimaki rounds

Round 1Tom Niinimaki edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control0:57

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 2Tom Niinimaki edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:22

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:51Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:11

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 33

Sig Strikes

17 / 27

43.3%

Sig Str %

63%

24 / 43

Total Strikes

54 / 64

2 / 3

TDs

4 / 6

50%

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

3:30

Ctrl Time

9:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Niinimaki	5 / 10	18 / 23	1 / 1	0
1	Rani Yahya	1 / 9	2 / 10	2 / 2	1
2	Tom Niinimaki	7 / 9	20 / 22	2 / 3	0
2	Rani Yahya	6 / 9	8 / 11	0 / 1	2
3	Tom Niinimaki	5 / 8	16 / 19	1 / 2	0
3	Rani Yahya	8 / 15	14 / 22	0 / 0	1

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Tom Niinimaki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4