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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Simon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1500

Rani YahyavsRicky SimonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Ricky Simon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRani Yahya: WrestlervsRicky Simon: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ricky Simon wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Ricky Simon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Simon at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricky Simon has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ricky Simon has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya

Red Corner

Ricky Simon

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1495

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Aug 18

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricRicky Simon

1.71

Strikes / min

3.03

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

50%

Strike defense

61%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

4.49

29%

Takedown defense

76%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rani YahyaRicky Simon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rani Yahya(10 fights)Ricky Simon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.3|Blue +5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetRicky Simon

By target zone

18% acc · 62%

Head

34% acc · 74%

71% acc · 21%

Body

56% acc · 17%

62% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 70%

Clinch

Ground

70% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rani Yahya rounds

even

Ricky Simon rounds

Round 1Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 3Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 186

Sig Strikes

54 / 137

24%

Sig Str %

38.7%

52 / 195

Total Strikes

66 / 150

0 / 9

TDs

4 / 5

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ricky Simon	20 / 49	21 / 50	1 / 1
1	Rani Yahya	21 / 62	22 / 64	0 / 5
2	Ricky Simon	11 / 43	16 / 48	2 / 3
2	Rani Yahya	19 / 82	21 / 85	0 / 1
3	Ricky Simon	23 / 45	29 / 52	1 / 1
3	Rani Yahya	7 / 42	9 / 46	0 / 3

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17