Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rani Yahya won · SUB

Elo1495

Elo1397

Rani YahyavsRay RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rani Yahya won

SUB

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Rani Yahya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rani Yahya threatens submissions; Ray Rodriguez has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Rani Yahya has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ray Rodriguez has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya

Red Corner

Ray Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1495

Elo

1397

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Aug 18

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Ray Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricRay Rodriguez

1.71

Strikes / min

0.90

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.89

50%

Strike defense

40%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

1.42

29%

Takedown defense

44%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap-2.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rani YahyaRay Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rani Yahya(10 fights)Ray Rodriguez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +574.0|Blue -574.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetRay Rodriguez

By target zone

0% acc

Head

13% acc · 67%

50% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 33%

88% acc · 88%

Leg

By position

62% acc · 100%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rani Yahya rounds

even

Ray Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:41

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:19

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 13

Sig Strikes

3 / 18

63%

Sig Str %

19.5%

42 / 65

Total Strikes

15 / 35

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ray Rodriguez	1 / 4	8 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Rani Yahya	2 / 3	31 / 45	1 / 2	0
2	Ray Rodriguez	2 / 14	7 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Rani Yahya	6 / 10	11 / 20	1 / 2	1

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Ray Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2