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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Montel Jackson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Elo1499
Montel Jackson

Rani YahyavsMontel JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Montel Jackson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:42

Style matchupRani Yahya: WrestlervsMontel Jackson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Montel Jackson wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Montel Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montel Jackson at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Montel Jackson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Montel Jackson has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Montel Jackson (53.5%).
  • Montel Jackson has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya
Red Corner
VS
Montel Jackson
Blue Corner
+440
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-590
(86%)
1495
Elo
1499
41
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'10"
170.18 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani Yahya
oldest →
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Aug 18
L
vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19
W
SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21
L
KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24
latest
Montel JacksonL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Julio Arce · Nov 22
W
KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 24
W
vs Daniel Marcos · May 25
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Oct 25
L
DECvs Raoni Barcelos · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricMontel Jackson
1.71
Strikes / min
3.02
2.08
Strikes absorbed / min
1.40
50%
Strike defense
60%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
2.71
29%
Takedown defense
67%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1606 vs 1561Strikes1.7 vs 3.4Takedowns2.7 vs 3.4Sub Atts1.80 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 0.9
Rani YahyaMontel Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Rani Yahya(10 fights)Montel Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.4|Blue +4.4
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +357.0|Blue -357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetMontel Jackson

By target zone

1
10% acc · 14%
Head
7
39% acc · 78%
1
50% acc · 14%
Body
1
50% acc · 11%
5
56% acc · 71%
Leg
1
100% acc · 11%

By position

7
33% acc · 100%
Distance
5
36% acc · 56%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
57% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rani Yahya rounds
0
even
1
Montel Jackson rounds
Round 1Montel Jackson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:08
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
7 / 21
Sig Strikes
9 / 21
33%
Sig Str %
42%
7 / 22
Total Strikes
10 / 23
0 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
1:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Montel Jackson9 / 2110 / 230 / 00
1Rani Yahya7 / 217 / 220 / 30

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights19

Montel Jackson

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights13