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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Rani Yahya won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Elo1400

Rani YahyavsLuke SandersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Rani Yahya won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:31

Style matchupRani Yahya: WrestlervsLuke Sanders: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Rani Yahya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rani Yahya threatens submissions; Luke Sanders has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Luke Sanders has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya
Red Corner
VS
Luke Sanders
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1495
Elo
1400
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani YahyaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19
W
SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21
L
KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23
L
KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24
latest
Luke SandersL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Andre Soukhamthath · Dec 17
W
vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18
W
KOvs Renan Barao · Feb 19
L
SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20
L
vs Felipe Colares · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricLuke Sanders
1.71
Strikes / min
6.61
2.08
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
50%
Strike defense
50%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
0.71
29%
Takedown defense
72%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 2.61 — meaningful gap+2.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1586 vs 1501Strikes19.2 vs 50.5Takedowns2.4 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.36 vs 0.25Form0.7 vs 0.0
Rani YahyaLuke Sanders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rani Yahya(10 fights)Luke Sanders(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +95.3|Blue -95.3
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetLuke Sanders

By target zone

1
25% acc · 25%
Head
2
50% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
0
2
67% acc · 50%
Leg
0

By position

4
50% acc · 100%
Distance
2
67% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rani Yahya rounds
1
even
0
Luke Sanders rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:04
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 8
Sig Strikes
2 / 4
50%
Sig Str %
50%
4 / 8
Total Strikes
2 / 4
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:22

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Luke Sanders2 / 42 / 40 / 00
1Rani Yahya4 / 84 / 80 / 22

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights19

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights8