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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Joe Soto won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1364

Rani YahyavsJoe SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Joe Soto won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRani Yahya: WrestlervsJoe Soto: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Joe Soto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Soto has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joe Soto has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rani Yahya

Red Corner

Joe Soto

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1495

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Joe SotoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michinori Tanaka · Jan 16

SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16

SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16

SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rani YahyaMetricJoe Soto

1.71

Strikes / min

3.36

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

5.37

50%

Strike defense

67%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

0.85

29%

Takedown defense

70%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rani YahyaJoe Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rani Yahya(10 fights)Joe Soto(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.3|Blue -131.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rani YahyaTargetJoe Soto

By target zone

22% acc · 69%

Head

46% acc · 91%

65% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 7%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

27% acc · 93%

Distance

39% acc · 67%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

Ground

94% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rani Yahya rounds

even

Joe Soto rounds

Round 1Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:50

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Joe Soto edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Joe Soto edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:07

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 215

Sig Strikes

54 / 113

27.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

65 / 221

Total Strikes

98 / 176

1 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

4:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Soto	9 / 29	10 / 30	0 / 0	1
1	Rani Yahya	21 / 73	22 / 74	1 / 2	0
2	Joe Soto	31 / 63	35 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Rani Yahya	28 / 109	29 / 110	0 / 8	0
3	Joe Soto	14 / 21	53 / 77	1 / 1	1
3	Rani Yahya	10 / 33	14 / 37	0 / 1	0

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8