Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Randy Couture won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Randy CouturevsJames ToneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Randy Couture won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:19

Model Prediction: Randy Couture wins(79.7%)

Actual result: Randy Couture wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Couture at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Couture has 32pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Randy Couture has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Couture

Red Corner

James Toney

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

183 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy Couture

oldest →

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Apr 11

latest

James ToneyNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy CoutureMetricJames Toney

2.85

Strikes / min

0.00

1.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

59%

Strike defense

27%

2.78

TDs / 15 min

0.00

58%

Takedown defense

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32Δ 3.73 — meaningful gap-2.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy CoutureJames Toney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Couture(2 fights)James Toney(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy CoutureTargetJames Toney

By target zone

70% acc · 88%

Head

100% acc · 13%

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

Clinch

73% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Couture rounds

even

James Toney rounds

Round 1Randy Couture edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:03

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 11

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

72%

Sig Str %

—

41 / 50

Total Strikes

4 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Toney	0 / 0	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Randy Couture	8 / 11	41 / 50	1 / 1	2

Randy Couture

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2

James Toney

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights1