Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tony Kelley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1436

Elo1495

Randy CostavsTony KelleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Kelley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:15

Style matchupRandy Costa: Pressure fightervsTony Kelley: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tony Kelley wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Tony Kelley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Kelley at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Kelley is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Randy Costa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Randy Costa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Costa

Red Corner

Tony Kelley

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1436

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy CostaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19

KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19

KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21

SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22

latest

Tony Kelley

oldest →

vs Ali AlQaisi · Oct 20

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy CostaMetricTony Kelley

6.53

Strikes / min

5.55

7.58

Strikes absorbed / min

4.85

58%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy CostaTony Kelley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Costa(6 fights)Tony Kelley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.1|Blue +59.1

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -287.0|Blue +287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy CostaTargetTony Kelley

By target zone

37% acc · 65%

Head

28% acc · 32%

100% acc · 35%

Body

69% acc · 52%

Leg

93% acc · 16%

By position

36% acc · 61%

Distance

29% acc · 33%

100% acc · 39%

Clinch

76% acc · 39%

Ground

68% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Costa rounds

even

Tony Kelley rounds

Round 1Tony Kelley edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:28

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 2Tony Kelley edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:01

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 65

Sig Strikes

82 / 169

48%

Sig Str %

48.5%

32 / 66

Total Strikes

129 / 218

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:29

Ctrl Time

3:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tony Kelley	35 / 90	50 / 105	0 / 0
1	Randy Costa	16 / 37	17 / 38	0 / 0
2	Tony Kelley	47 / 79	79 / 113	0 / 0
2	Randy Costa	15 / 28	15 / 28	0 / 1

Randy Costa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Tony Kelley

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3