Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Randy Costa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1436

Elo1377

Randy CostavsBoston SalmonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Randy Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:15

Style matchupRandy Costa: Pressure fightervsBoston Salmon: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Randy Costa wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Randy Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Costa at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Costa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Randy Costa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Boston Salmon has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Boston Salmon has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Randy Costa (54.1%).
Randy Costa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Costa

Red Corner

Boston Salmon

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1436

Elo

1377

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy CostaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19

KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21

KOvs Tony Kelley · Dec 21

SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22

latest

Boston Salmon

oldest →

KOvs Khalid Taha · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy CostaMetricBoston Salmon

6.53

Strikes / min

4.13

7.58

Strikes absorbed / min

7.75

58%

Strike defense

59%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap-3.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy CostaBoston Salmon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Costa(6 fights)Boston Salmon(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.1|Blue -59.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy CostaTargetBoston Salmon

By target zone

51% acc · 95%

Head

31% acc · 33%

33% acc · 5%

Body

88% acc · 58%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

53% acc · 86%

Distance

52% acc · 92%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

43% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Costa rounds

even

Boston Salmon rounds

Round 1Randy Costa edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns2

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 44

Sig Strikes

12 / 22

50%

Sig Str %

54%

23 / 45

Total Strikes

16 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Boston Salmon	12 / 22	16 / 26	0 / 1	0
1	Randy Costa	22 / 44	23 / 45	0 / 0	0

Randy Costa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Boston Salmon

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2