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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1484

Wellington Turman editorial illustration

Randy BrownvsWellington TurmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Brown has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Randy Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Wellington Turman

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+196

(34%)

1498

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Wellington TurmanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 21

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 21

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 22

vs Andre Petroski · Nov 22

SUBvs Jared Gooden · Dec 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricWellington Turman

4.39

Strikes / min

3.23

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

53%

Strike defense

45%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.55

74%

Takedown defense

42%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownWellington Turman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Wellington Turman(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.2|Blue -13.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetWellington Turman

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

32% acc · 35%

74% acc · 27%

Body

71% acc · 18%

100% acc · 41%

Leg

84% acc · 47%

By position

44% acc · 83%

Distance

48% acc · 78%

85% acc · 17%

Clinch

80% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Wellington Turman rounds

Round 1Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:17

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:21

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 3Wellington Turman edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:09

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 134

Sig Strikes

55 / 105

48.3%

Sig Str %

55%

78 / 156

Total Strikes

96 / 153

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 5

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

3:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Wellington Turman	25 / 52	26 / 53	0 / 0
1	Randy Brown	31 / 69	31 / 69	1 / 1
2	Wellington Turman	12 / 18	42 / 54	0 / 2
2	Randy Brown	15 / 30	28 / 50	1 / 1
3	Wellington Turman	18 / 35	28 / 46	0 / 3
3	Randy Brown	18 / 35	19 / 37	0 / 0

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Wellington Turman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9