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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1498

Elo1508

Randy BrownvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Saturday, April 26, 2025Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:39

Style matchupRandy Brown: Well-roundedvsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Brown enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Randy Brown has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Randy Brown has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1498

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Feb 24

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · Jan 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricNicolas Dalby

4.39

Strikes / min

3.88

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

53%

Strike defense

52%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.90

74%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.6|Blue +10.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

44% acc · 83%

Head

23% acc · 46%

71% acc · 9%

Body

33% acc · 4%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

68% acc · 50%

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 96%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 114

Sig Strikes

26 / 74

46.5%

Sig Str %

34.5%

58 / 118

Total Strikes

40 / 90

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolas Dalby	15 / 39	29 / 55	0 / 0
1	Randy Brown	22 / 52	26 / 56	0 / 0
2	Nicolas Dalby	11 / 35	11 / 35	0 / 0
2	Randy Brown	32 / 62	32 / 62	0 / 0

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14