Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Graves won · SUB R2

Elo1498

Elo1490

Randy BrownvsMichael GravesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michael Graves won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:31

Style matchupRandy Brown: Well-roundedvsMichael Graves: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Michael Graves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Brown has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Michael Graves

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1498

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

198.12 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Michael Graves

oldest →

vs Vicente Luque · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricMichael Graves

4.39

Strikes / min

1.25

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

1.47

53%

Strike defense

58%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

4.80

74%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownMichael Graves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Michael Graves(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -202.0|Blue +202.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetMichael Graves

By target zone

44% acc · 70%

Head

50% acc · 91%

100% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

0% acc

By position

27% acc · 30%

Distance

0% acc

86% acc · 60%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

53% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Michael Graves rounds

Round 1Michael Graves edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:02

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 2Michael Graves edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 19

Sig Strikes

11 / 22

42.5%

Sig Str %

49.5%

24 / 35

Total Strikes

26 / 40

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

1:02

Ctrl Time

5:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Graves	5 / 11	13 / 20	1 / 6	0
1	Randy Brown	9 / 15	23 / 31	0 / 1	1
2	Michael Graves	6 / 11	13 / 20	1 / 1	1
2	Randy Brown	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Michael Graves

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2