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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1495

Randy BrownvsJared GoodenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRandy Brown: Well-roundedvsJared Gooden: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Jared Gooden

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1498

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Jared Gooden

oldest →

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Mar 21

KOvs Niklas Stolze · Jul 21

vs Carlston Harris · Mar 23

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Dec 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricJared Gooden

4.39

Strikes / min

4.40

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

6.74

53%

Strike defense

45%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.91

74%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap-2.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownJared Gooden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Jared Gooden(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetJared Gooden

By target zone

41% acc · 70%

Head

25% acc · 23%

86% acc · 22%

Body

75% acc · 33%

90% acc · 8%

Leg

80% acc · 43%

By position

109

48% acc · 95%

Distance

52% acc · 96%

71% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Jared Gooden rounds

Round 1Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:01

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:05

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

115 / 235

Sig Strikes

81 / 156

48.3%

Sig Str %

52%

117 / 237

Total Strikes

87 / 162

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Gooden	25 / 51	26 / 52	0 / 0
1	Randy Brown	28 / 60	28 / 60	0 / 0
2	Jared Gooden	30 / 47	30 / 47	0 / 0
2	Randy Brown	37 / 88	37 / 88	0 / 0
3	Jared Gooden	26 / 58	31 / 63	0 / 0
3	Randy Brown	50 / 87	52 / 89	0 / 1

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Jared Gooden

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7