Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1496

Randy BrownvsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRandy Brown: Well-roundedvsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Randy Brown has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1498

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Francisco TrinaldoW2 streak

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Mar 20

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

4.39

Strikes / min

3.13

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

53%

Strike defense

60%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.98

74%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

30% acc · 50%

Head

45% acc · 50%

63% acc · 17%

Body

75% acc · 23%

83% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

56% acc · 83%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 141

Sig Strikes

40 / 67

44.7%

Sig Str %

63.7%

65 / 148

Total Strikes

82 / 111

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

5:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Trinaldo	9 / 15	13 / 19	1 / 3	0
1	Randy Brown	23 / 49	27 / 53	0 / 0	1
2	Francisco Trinaldo	19 / 37	22 / 40	0 / 1	0
2	Randy Brown	25 / 69	25 / 69	0 / 1	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	12 / 15	47 / 52	0 / 0	0
3	Randy Brown	12 / 23	13 / 26	0 / 0	0

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26