Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1488

Randy BrownvsElizeu Zaleski dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRandy Brown: Well-roundedvsElizeu Zaleski dos Santos: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Brown has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1498

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Feb 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Benoit Saint Denis · Oct 21

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Jun 23

KOvs Zachary Scroggin · Nov 24

KOvs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 25

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

4.39

Strikes / min

4.16

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.79

74%

Takedown defense

67%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.1|Blue -9.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

By target zone

42% acc · 75%

Head

16% acc · 31%

63% acc · 7%

Body

33% acc · 12%

92% acc · 18%

Leg

88% acc · 58%

By position

46% acc · 91%

Distance

33% acc · 92%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos rounds

Round 1Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:32

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:52Control

Round 3Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:10

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 141

Sig Strikes

26 / 76

46.3%

Sig Str %

36%

89 / 166

Total Strikes

42 / 94

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

53.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

5:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	9 / 34	9 / 34	0 / 1	0
1	Randy Brown	34 / 71	35 / 72	0 / 0	0
2	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	3 / 7	19 / 25	3 / 5	1
2	Randy Brown	8 / 18	15 / 25	0 / 0	2
3	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	14 / 35	14 / 35	1 / 1	0
3	Randy Brown	25 / 52	39 / 69	0 / 0	0

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights15