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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1479

Randy BrownvsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRandy Brown: Well-roundedvsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Randy Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randy Brown

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1498

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randy BrownMetricBelal Muhammad

4.39

Strikes / min

4.43

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

2.14

74%

Takedown defense

90%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randy BrownBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randy Brown(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.4|Blue -18.4

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -27.0|Blue +27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randy BrownTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

32% acc · 69%

Head

23% acc · 32%

58% acc · 13%

Body

71% acc · 7%

45% acc · 17%

Leg

91% acc · 61%

By position

35% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 85%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randy Brown rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:07

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:19

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 145

Sig Strikes

71 / 152

36%

Sig Str %

41%

65 / 158

Total Strikes

135 / 236

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

5:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	39 / 84	39 / 84	0 / 0
1	Randy Brown	26 / 80	26 / 80	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	28 / 51	55 / 82	1 / 3
2	Randy Brown	19 / 44	23 / 48	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	4 / 17	41 / 70	1 / 2
3	Randy Brown	7 / 21	16 / 30	0 / 0

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21