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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1483

Randa MarkosvsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Randa Markos wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randa Markos at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Randa Markos

Red Corner

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1494

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randa MarkosMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz

2.97

Strikes / min

5.54

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

58%

Strike defense

56%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.36

52%

Takedown defense

74%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randa MarkosKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randa Markos(10 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.3|Blue -10.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randa MarkosTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

26% acc · 62%

Head

29% acc · 61%

29% acc · 6%

Body

86% acc · 18%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

78% acc · 21%

By position

33% acc · 91%

Distance

32% acc · 71%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

90% acc · 14%

Ground

83% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randa Markos rounds

even

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:13

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:34

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:32

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 100

Sig Strikes

66 / 169

34%

Sig Str %

39.7%

56 / 125

Total Strikes

104 / 216

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	23 / 56	26 / 61	0 / 0
1	Randa Markos	18 / 49	28 / 59	0 / 1
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	10 / 24	22 / 40	0 / 0
2	Randa Markos	4 / 11	10 / 20	1 / 3
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	33 / 89	56 / 115	0 / 0
3	Randa Markos	12 / 40	18 / 46	0 / 5

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19