Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Randa Markos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1359

Randa MarkosvsJocelyn Jones-LybargerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Randa Markos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Randa Markos wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Randa Markos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randa Markos at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Randa Markos

Red Corner

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1494

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Jocelyn Jones-LybargerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Dec 15

SUBvs Nina Ansaroff · Jan 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randa MarkosMetricJocelyn Jones-Lybarger

2.97

Strikes / min

2.96

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.83

58%

Strike defense

56%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.34

52%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randa MarkosJocelyn Jones-Lybarger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randa Markos(10 fights)Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.7|Blue -134.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randa MarkosTargetJocelyn Jones-Lybarger

By target zone

34% acc · 90%

Head

29% acc · 76%

67% acc · 7%

Body

45% acc · 6%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

88% acc · 18%

By position

30% acc · 76%

Distance

33% acc · 95%

72% acc · 15%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

73% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randa Markos rounds

even

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger rounds

Round 1Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:27

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 2Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:32

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 243

Sig Strikes

79 / 235

36.3%

Sig Str %

35.3%

116 / 284

Total Strikes

96 / 252

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:59

Ctrl Time

1:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger	20 / 44	34 / 58	1 / 1	0
1	Randa Markos	28 / 60	52 / 95	0 / 1	1
2	Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger	33 / 100	33 / 100	0 / 0	0
2	Randa Markos	31 / 96	34 / 99	0 / 3	0
3	Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger	26 / 91	29 / 94	0 / 0	0
3	Randa Markos	27 / 87	30 / 90	1 / 2	0

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights3