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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cortney Casey won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1495

Randa MarkosvsCortney CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cortney Casey won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:34

Model Prediction: Randa Markos wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Cortney Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randa Markos at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cortney Casey has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randa Markos

Red Corner

Cortney Casey

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1494

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Cortney Casey

oldest →

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randa MarkosMetricCortney Casey

2.97

Strikes / min

4.29

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.00

58%

Strike defense

55%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.39

52%

Takedown defense

39%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randa MarkosCortney Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randa Markos(10 fights)Cortney Casey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +25.0|Blue -25.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randa MarkosTargetCortney Casey

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

53% acc · 76%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

19% acc · 75%

Distance

43% acc · 43%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

79% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randa Markos rounds

even

Cortney Casey rounds

Round 1Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:52

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 17

Sig Strikes

21 / 36

23%

Sig Str %

58%

38 / 51

Total Strikes

29 / 44

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cortney Casey	21 / 36	29 / 44	0 / 0	1
1	Randa Markos	4 / 17	38 / 51	1 / 1	0

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15