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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Randa Markos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1480

Randa MarkosvsAshley YoderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Saturday, October 26, 2019Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Randa Markos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Randa Markos wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Randa Markos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randa Markos at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ashley Yoder enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Randa Markos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ashley Yoder (53.5%).
Ashley Yoder has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Randa Markos

Red Corner

Ashley Yoder

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1494

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Ashley YoderL3 streak

oldest →

vs Livinha Souza · Aug 20

vs Miranda Granger · Nov 20

vs Angela Hill · Mar 21

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jul 21

vs Emily Ducote · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randa MarkosMetricAshley Yoder

2.97

Strikes / min

3.42

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.13

58%

Strike defense

47%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

1.09

52%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randa MarkosAshley Yoder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randa Markos(10 fights)Ashley Yoder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.1|Blue -14.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randa MarkosTargetAshley Yoder

By target zone

50% acc · 74%

Head

36% acc · 68%

77% acc · 13%

Body

69% acc · 25%

91% acc · 13%

Leg

43% acc · 7%

By position

45% acc · 54%

Distance

30% acc · 55%

79% acc · 33%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

71% acc · 13%

Ground

88% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randa Markos rounds

even

Ashley Yoder rounds

Round 1Ashley Yoder edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:28

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 2Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control1:31

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:06

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 140

Sig Strikes

44 / 107

64%

Sig Str %

48.3%

94 / 158

Total Strikes

82 / 148

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:05

Ctrl Time

5:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ashley Yoder	11 / 16	22 / 27	1 / 3
1	Randa Markos	8 / 10	9 / 11	0 / 1
2	Ashley Yoder	19 / 36	41 / 61	1 / 2
2	Randa Markos	39 / 54	54 / 71	0 / 0
3	Ashley Yoder	14 / 55	19 / 60	0 / 1
3	Randa Markos	31 / 76	31 / 76	0 / 0

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Ashley Yoder

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11