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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alexa Grasso won · S-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1512

Randa MarkosvsAlexa GrassoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexa Grasso wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexa Grasso at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Randa Markos

Red Corner

Alexa Grasso

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1494

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randa MarkosMetricAlexa Grasso

2.97

Strikes / min

4.11

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.40

52%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randa MarkosAlexa Grasso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randa Markos(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.7|Blue +18.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -15.0|Blue +15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randa MarkosTargetAlexa Grasso

By target zone

38% acc · 89%

Head

33% acc · 69%

71% acc · 11%

Body

70% acc · 11%

Leg

93% acc · 20%

By position

32% acc · 64%

Distance

34% acc · 73%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

81% acc · 20%

77% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randa Markos rounds

even

Alexa Grasso rounds

Round 1Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:21

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control2:41

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:54

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 113

Sig Strikes

64 / 157

42.7%

Sig Str %

40%

71 / 141

Total Strikes

121 / 224

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

31.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:56

Ctrl Time

2:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexa Grasso	35 / 74	52 / 95	0 / 0
1	Randa Markos	18 / 53	23 / 58	0 / 2
2	Alexa Grasso	8 / 20	39 / 52	0 / 0
2	Randa Markos	12 / 21	27 / 37	3 / 4
3	Alexa Grasso	21 / 63	30 / 77	0 / 0
3	Randa Markos	15 / 39	21 / 46	1 / 5

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14