Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Randa Markos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1490

Randa MarkosvsAisling DalyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Randa Markos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aisling Daly wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Randa Markos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aisling Daly at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randa Markos has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Aisling Daly (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Randa Markos

Red Corner

Aisling Daly

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1494

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'2"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Sep 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Aisling DalyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · Dec 14

vs Ericka Almeida · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Randa MarkosMetricAisling Daly

2.97

Strikes / min

2.92

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

1.40

58%

Strike defense

55%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

2.15

52%

Takedown defense

33%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Randa MarkosAisling Daly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Randa Markos(10 fights)Aisling Daly(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Randa MarkosTargetAisling Daly

By target zone

31% acc · 83%

Head

30% acc · 56%

100% acc · 11%

Body

90% acc · 33%

50% acc · 6%

Leg

60% acc · 11%

By position

26% acc · 61%

Distance

21% acc · 33%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

86% acc · 44%

100% acc · 22%

Ground

75% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Randa Markos rounds

even

Aisling Daly rounds

Round 1Aisling Daly edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:03

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Aisling Daly edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 3Randa Markos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:26

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 52

Sig Strikes

27 / 65

35.3%

Sig Str %

43%

131 / 171

Total Strikes

50 / 92

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 5

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:29

Ctrl Time

6:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aisling Daly	10 / 32	19 / 42	1 / 2	0
1	Randa Markos	9 / 27	16 / 34	0 / 0	1
2	Aisling Daly	12 / 20	21 / 31	1 / 2	1
2	Randa Markos	3 / 13	53 / 67	1 / 2	0
3	Aisling Daly	5 / 13	10 / 19	0 / 1	0
3	Randa Markos	6 / 12	62 / 70	1 / 2	0

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Aisling Daly

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights3