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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ramsey Nijem won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1351

Ramsey NijemvsDanny DownesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ramsey Nijem won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Danny Downes wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Ramsey Nijem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Downes at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ramsey Nijem has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ramsey Nijem has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ramsey Nijem

Red Corner

Danny Downes

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1355

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ramsey NijemL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Vick · Aug 13

vs Justin Edwards · Jan 14

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Apr 14

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Aug 14

vs Andrew Holbrook · Jul 15

latest

Danny Downes

oldest →

vs Jeremy Stephens · Jun 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ramsey NijemMetricDanny Downes

3.05

Strikes / min

1.66

1.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

62%

Strike defense

37%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

37%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 3.30 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ramsey NijemDanny Downes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ramsey Nijem(10 fights)Danny Downes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.9|Blue -3.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ramsey NijemTargetDanny Downes

By target zone

74% acc · 85%

Head

16% acc · 67%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

68% acc · 36%

Distance

19% acc · 83%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

79% acc · 53%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ramsey Nijem rounds

even

Danny Downes rounds

Round 1Ramsey Nijem edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns4

Control4:01

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Ramsey Nijem edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Ramsey Nijem edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control4:30

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 77

Sig Strikes

6 / 27

74.7%

Sig Str %

19.7%

163 / 190

Total Strikes

22 / 43

8 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

57.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:42

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Downes	4 / 15	5 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Ramsey Nijem	29 / 35	41 / 48	4 / 7	1
2	Danny Downes	2 / 6	17 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Ramsey Nijem	14 / 20	34 / 41	2 / 4	2
3	Danny Downes	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Ramsey Nijem	16 / 22	88 / 101	2 / 3	1

Ramsey Nijem

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Danny Downes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2