Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · Decision R3
Elo1490
Rampage Jackson
Elo1491
Ryan Bader

Rampage JacksonvsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rampage Jackson wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rampage Jackson at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rampage Jackson
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1490
Elo
1491
33
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rampage Jackson
oldest →
W
DECvs Lyoto Machida · Nov 10
W
DECvs Matt Hamill · May 11
L
SUBvs Jon Jones · Sep 11
L
DECvs Glover Teixeira · Jan 13
W
DECvs Fabio Maldonado · Apr 15
latest
Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15
W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15
L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16
W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16
W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rampage JacksonMetricRyan Bader
—
Strikes / min
2.82
—
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
—
Strike defense
71%
—
TDs / 15 min
3.37
—
Takedown defense
80%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1501Strikes34.6 vs 22.1Takedowns0.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.25Form-0.0 vs 0.1
Rampage JacksonRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Rampage Jackson(7 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Rampage Jackson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights1

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16