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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rampage Jackson won · Decision R3
Elo1490
Rampage Jackson
Elo1491

Rampage JacksonvsLyoto MachidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Rampage Jackson won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Rampage Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lyoto Machida at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rampage Jackson
Red Corner
VS
Lyoto Machida
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
1490
Elo
1491
32
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rampage Jackson
oldest →
W
DECvs Matt Hamill · May 11
L
SUBvs Jon Jones · Sep 11
L
DECvs Ryan Bader · Feb 12
L
DECvs Glover Teixeira · Jan 13
W
DECvs Fabio Maldonado · Apr 15
latest
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15
L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17
W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18
W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rampage JacksonMetricLyoto Machida
—
Strikes / min
2.59
—
Strikes absorbed / min
1.57
—
Strike defense
61%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.21
—
Takedown defense
75%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1484Strikes37.0 vs 39.7Takedowns0.6 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.78Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Rampage JacksonLyoto Machida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rampage Jackson(7 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Rampage Jackson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights1

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16