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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Punahele Soriano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1535

Ramiz BrahimajvsPunahele SorianoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Punahele Soriano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Punahele Soriano wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Punahele Soriano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Punahele Soriano at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ramiz Brahimaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Punahele Soriano enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Punahele Soriano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ramiz Brahimaj

Red Corner

Punahele Soriano

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1512

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ramiz BrahimajW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Micheal Gillmore · Feb 22

vs Themba Gorimbo · May 24

KOvs Mickey Gall · Nov 24

SUBvs Billy Ray Goff · May 25

SUBvs Austin Vanderford · Oct 25

latest

Punahele SorianoW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 23

SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23

vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ramiz BrahimajMetricPunahele Soriano

2.29

Strikes / min

4.42

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

47%

Strike defense

47%

1.99

TDs / 15 min

1.97

44%

Takedown defense

48%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ramiz BrahimajPunahele Soriano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ramiz Brahimaj(9 fights)Punahele Soriano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.2|Blue +23.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ramiz BrahimajTargetPunahele Soriano

By target zone

38% acc · 42%

Head

37% acc · 73%

88% acc · 55%

Body

85% acc · 28%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 92%

Distance

34% acc · 63%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

93% acc · 35%

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ramiz Brahimaj rounds

even

Punahele Soriano rounds

Round 1Ramiz Brahimaj edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:47

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 3Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:59

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 67

Sig Strikes

40 / 92

58.7%

Sig Str %

49%

43 / 73

Total Strikes

66 / 123

3 / 11

TDs

3 / 4

19.3%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

5:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Punahele Soriano	17 / 52	21 / 59	0 / 0
1	Ramiz Brahimaj	31 / 56	31 / 56	0 / 1
2	Punahele Soriano	7 / 12	26 / 32	1 / 1
2	Ramiz Brahimaj	5 / 7	10 / 12	2 / 6
3	Punahele Soriano	16 / 28	19 / 32	2 / 3
3	Ramiz Brahimaj	2 / 4	2 / 5	1 / 4

Ramiz Brahimaj

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11