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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ramiz Brahimaj won · SUB R2

Elo1512

Elo1495

Ramiz BrahimajvsAustin VanderfordUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ramiz Brahimaj won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:24

Style matchupRamiz Brahimaj: Submission grapplervsAustin Vanderford: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Austin Vanderford wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Ramiz Brahimaj wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Vanderford at -295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Vanderford has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ramiz Brahimaj

Red Corner

Austin Vanderford

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-295

(75%)

1512

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ramiz Brahimaj

oldest →

SUBvs Micheal Gillmore · Feb 22

vs Themba Gorimbo · May 24

KOvs Mickey Gall · Nov 24

SUBvs Billy Ray Goff · May 25

vs Punahele Soriano · Feb 26

latest

Austin Vanderford

oldest →

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ramiz BrahimajMetricAustin Vanderford

2.29

Strikes / min

3.04

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

47%

Strike defense

48%

1.99

TDs / 15 min

3.08

44%

Takedown defense

100%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ramiz BrahimajAustin Vanderford

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ramiz Brahimaj(9 fights)Austin Vanderford(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.7|Blue -16.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ramiz BrahimajTargetAustin Vanderford

By target zone

62% acc · 86%

Head

29% acc · 80%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

39% acc · 43%

Distance

27% acc · 80%

100% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ramiz Brahimaj rounds

even

Austin Vanderford rounds

Round 1Austin Vanderford edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 2Ramiz Brahimaj edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:37

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:53Control

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 35

Sig Strikes

5 / 16

53.5%

Sig Str %

29%

46 / 61

Total Strikes

13 / 24

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

70%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Vanderford	4 / 12	12 / 20	1 / 1	0
1	Ramiz Brahimaj	4 / 13	16 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Austin Vanderford	1 / 4	1 / 4	2 / 5	0
2	Ramiz Brahimaj	17 / 22	30 / 36	0 / 1	2

Ramiz Brahimaj

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Austin Vanderford

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2