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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafaello Oliveira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1352

Rafaello OliveiravsYoislandy IzquierdoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · Saturday, July 7, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafaello Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yoislandy Izquierdo wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Rafaello Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoislandy Izquierdo at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rafaello Oliveira has 33pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Yoislandy Izquierdo has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yoislandy Izquierdo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafaello Oliveira

Red Corner

Yoislandy Izquierdo

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

184 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafaello OliveiraL5 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Winner · Mar 10

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11

KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11

KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13

KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14

latest

Yoislandy Izquierdo

oldest →

SUBvs Reza Madadi · Apr 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafaello OliveiraMetricYoislandy Izquierdo

2.19

Strikes / min

2.93

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

1.40

59%

Strike defense

26%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

0.00

11%

Takedown defense

50%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.19Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafaello OliveiraYoislandy Izquierdo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)Yoislandy Izquierdo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafaello OliveiraTargetYoislandy Izquierdo

By target zone

45% acc · 31%

Head

33% acc · 52%

100% acc · 45%

Body

90% acc · 33%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

60% acc · 41%

Distance

46% acc · 89%

Clinch

60% acc · 11%

85% acc · 59%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafaello Oliveira rounds

even

Yoislandy Izquierdo rounds

Round 1Rafaello Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:37

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafaello Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:15

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafaello Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control4:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 40

Sig Strikes

27 / 57

74.3%

Sig Str %

54%

178 / 199

Total Strikes

43 / 75

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:59

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yoislandy Izquierdo	13 / 33	15 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Rafaello Oliveira	13 / 18	35 / 41	1 / 4	1
2	Yoislandy Izquierdo	9 / 17	16 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Rafaello Oliveira	5 / 6	48 / 58	1 / 1	3
3	Yoislandy Izquierdo	5 / 7	12 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Rafaello Oliveira	11 / 16	95 / 100	2 / 2	1

Rafaello Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Yoislandy Izquierdo

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2