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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Erik Koch won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1353

Elo1492

Rafaello OliveiravsErik KochUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Erik Koch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:24

Style matchupRafaello Oliveira: WrestlervsErik Koch: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rafaello Oliveira wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafaello Oliveira at +423 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafaello Oliveira has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Erik Koch has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafaello Oliveira

Red Corner

Erik Koch

Blue Corner

+423

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-480

(83%)

1353

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafaello Oliveira

oldest →

vs Andre Winner · Mar 10

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11

KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11

vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12

KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13

latest

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafaello OliveiraMetricErik Koch

2.19

Strikes / min

2.33

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

59%

Strike defense

47%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

1.02

11%

Takedown defense

81%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.19evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafaello OliveiraErik Koch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.9|Blue +138.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafaello OliveiraTargetErik Koch

By target zone

0% acc

Head

70% acc · 100%

100% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

17% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 16%

Clinch

Ground

76% acc · 84%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafaello Oliveira rounds

even

Erik Koch rounds

Round 1Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 6

Sig Strikes

19 / 27

16%

Sig Str %

70%

1 / 6

Total Strikes

19 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Erik Koch	19 / 27	19 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Rafaello Oliveira	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	0

Rafaello Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10