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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Diyar Nurgozhay won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1497

Rafael TobiasvsDiyar NurgozhayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diyar Nurgozhay won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Tobias: WrestlervsDiyar Nurgozhay: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Rafael Tobias wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Diyar Nurgozhay wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Tobias at -174 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diyar Nurgozhay has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rafael Tobias has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Tobias

Red Corner

Diyar Nurgozhay

Blue Corner

-174

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+146

(41%)

1483

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael TobiasNo prior UFC fights on record.

Diyar NurgozhayL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendson Ribeiro · Mar 25

SUBvs Uran Satybaldiev · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael TobiasMetricDiyar Nurgozhay

2.77

Strikes / min

4.52

5.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

35%

Strike defense

61%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.37

100%

Takedown defense

80%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.04Δ 4.75 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael TobiasDiyar Nurgozhay

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Tobias(1 fights)Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.2|Blue +14.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael TobiasTargetDiyar Nurgozhay

By target zone

34% acc · 74%

Head

46% acc · 35%

70% acc · 18%

Body

79% acc · 39%

60% acc · 8%

Leg

96% acc · 26%

By position

31% acc · 67%

Distance

66% acc · 86%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

83% acc · 5%

82% acc · 23%

Ground

53% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Tobias rounds

even

Diyar Nurgozhay rounds

Round 1Diyar Nurgozhay edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Diyar Nurgozhay edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:44

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 3Diyar Nurgozhay edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:47

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 101

Sig Strikes

94 / 143

39%

Sig Str %

66%

52 / 114

Total Strikes

100 / 150

2 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diyar Nurgozhay	36 / 57	36 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Rafael Tobias	10 / 38	10 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Diyar Nurgozhay	27 / 46	32 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Tobias	16 / 34	28 / 46	1 / 6	0
3	Diyar Nurgozhay	31 / 40	32 / 41	0 / 1	0
3	Rafael Tobias	13 / 29	14 / 30	1 / 2	1

Rafael Tobias

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights1

Diyar Nurgozhay

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3