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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1355

Rafael NatalvsTom WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsTom Watson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tom Watson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Rafael Natal has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Tom Watson

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1361

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Tom Watson

oldest →

KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13

vs Thales Leites · Aug 13

vs Nick Catone · Feb 14

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14

vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricTom Watson

3.10

Strikes / min

4.01

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

57%

Strike defense

50%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.15

77%

Takedown defense

43%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalTom Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tom Watson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.9|Blue -5.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetTom Watson

By target zone

34% acc · 64%

Head

12% acc · 45%

75% acc · 9%

Body

5% acc · 3%

95% acc · 27%

Leg

63% acc · 52%

By position

45% acc · 97%

Distance

19% acc · 97%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

17% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Tom Watson rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns3

Control1:20

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:24

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns3

Control0:46

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 152

Sig Strikes

29 / 150

43.7%

Sig Str %

18.7%

74 / 159

Total Strikes

33 / 156

8 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

63.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tom Watson	9 / 44	11 / 46	0 / 0
1	Rafael Natal	23 / 51	27 / 55	3 / 4
2	Tom Watson	9 / 48	10 / 50	0 / 0
2	Rafael Natal	19 / 44	20 / 45	2 / 5
3	Tom Watson	11 / 58	12 / 60	0 / 0
3	Rafael Natal	25 / 57	27 / 59	3 / 4

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7