Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · SUB R3

Elo1361

Elo1358

Rafael NatalvsSean SpencerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:13

Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsSean Spencer: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean Spencer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Sean Spencer

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1361

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Sean SpencerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14

vs Paulo Thiago · Sep 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricSean Spencer

3.10

Strikes / min

4.24

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

57%

Strike defense

60%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.14

77%

Takedown defense

68%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalSean Spencer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetSean Spencer

By target zone

51% acc · 73%

Head

14% acc · 92%

75% acc · 9%

Body

20% acc · 8%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

0% acc

By position

42% acc · 39%

Distance

13% acc · 92%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

78% acc · 59%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Sean Spencer rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:30

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control3:25

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:47

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 111

Sig Strikes

12 / 84

61.3%

Sig Str %

12%

122 / 170

Total Strikes

14 / 86

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:42

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Spencer	7 / 59	7 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Rafael Natal	22 / 51	24 / 54	1 / 2	0
2	Sean Spencer	5 / 20	7 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Natal	19 / 32	63 / 76	2 / 2	1
3	Sean Spencer	0 / 5	0 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Rafael Natal	23 / 28	35 / 40	1 / 2	3

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Sean Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8