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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3
Elo1361
Elo1351

Rafael NatalvsPaul BradleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Paul Bradley has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Rafael Natal has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Paul Bradley
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1361
Elo
1351
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
183 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15
W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16
L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17
latest
Paul Bradley
oldest →
L
vs Mike Pierce · Nov 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricPaul Bradley
3.10
Strikes / min
2.26
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.13
57%
Strike defense
56%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
1.12
77%
Takedown defense
100%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1500Strikes20.5 vs —Takedowns3.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Rafael NatalPaul Bradley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Paul Bradley(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +9.9|Blue -9.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetPaul Bradley

By target zone

17
21% acc · 40%
Head
11
18% acc · 85%
6
55% acc · 14%
Body
1
25% acc · 8%
20
67% acc · 47%
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

38
33% acc · 88%
Distance
10
17% acc · 77%
5
56% acc · 12%
Clinch
2
33% acc · 15%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Rafael Natal rounds
0
even
1
Paul Bradley rounds
Round 1Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paul Bradley edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:33Control
Round 3Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:03
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
43 / 123
Sig Strikes
13 / 67
34.3%
Sig Str %
19.3%
55 / 135
Total Strikes
19 / 75
0 / 1
TDs
3 / 12
0%
TD %
37.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
2:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Paul Bradley3 / 243 / 240 / 20
1Rafael Natal10 / 4311 / 440 / 00
2Paul Bradley5 / 2311 / 312 / 20
2Rafael Natal12 / 3717 / 420 / 10
3Paul Bradley5 / 205 / 201 / 80
3Rafael Natal21 / 4327 / 490 / 00

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16

Paul Bradley

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights2