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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1353

Rafael NatalvsMichael KuiperUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsMichael Kuiper: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -152 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Kuiper is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Michael Kuiper

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1361

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Michael KuiperL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jared Hamman · Aug 12

SUBvs Tom Lawlor · Apr 13

SUBvs Bradley Scott · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricMichael Kuiper

3.10

Strikes / min

3.28

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

57%

Strike defense

54%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

2.30

77%

Takedown defense

79%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalMichael Kuiper

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Michael Kuiper(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.5|Blue -8.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetMichael Kuiper

By target zone

45% acc · 69%

Head

46% acc · 80%

63% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 10%

75% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 10%

By position

47% acc · 67%

Distance

31% acc · 27%

58% acc · 31%

Clinch

33% acc · 13%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

75% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Michael Kuiper rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns4

Control2:28

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:22

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Michael Kuiper edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:34

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 72

Sig Strikes

30 / 62

45%

Sig Str %

48%

61 / 98

Total Strikes

68 / 100

6 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

40.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:24

Ctrl Time

3:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Kuiper	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Rafael Natal	3 / 9	9 / 16	4 / 7	1
2	Michael Kuiper	8 / 29	11 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Natal	31 / 59	40 / 68	1 / 7	0
3	Michael Kuiper	18 / 22	51 / 55	0 / 0	0
3	Rafael Natal	2 / 4	12 / 14	1 / 2	1

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Michael Kuiper

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4