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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1361

Elo1358

Rafael NatalvsKevin CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Natal has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rafael Natal has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kevin Casey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Kevin Casey

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1361

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Jan 15

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Kevin Casey

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 15

KOvs Sam Alvey · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricKevin Casey

3.10

Strikes / min

2.27

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

57%

Strike defense

46%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.79

77%

Takedown defense

27%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalKevin Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Kevin Casey(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetKevin Casey

By target zone

58% acc · 80%

Head

24% acc · 63%

71% acc · 9%

Body

83% acc · 31%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 30%

Distance

27% acc · 75%

78% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

72% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Kevin Casey rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:35

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:33Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control3:12

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:44

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 87

Sig Strikes

16 / 49

58.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

123 / 168

Total Strikes

30 / 64

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:31

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Casey	10 / 30	17 / 38	0 / 1
1	Rafael Natal	7 / 15	22 / 31	1 / 4
2	Kevin Casey	2 / 7	9 / 14	0 / 1
2	Rafael Natal	24 / 33	59 / 74	2 / 2
3	Kevin Casey	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0
3	Rafael Natal	23 / 39	42 / 63	1 / 1

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Kevin Casey

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4