Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1352

Rafael NatalvsJoao ZeferinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Natal has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Joao Zeferino

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1361

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Joao Zeferino

oldest →

vs Elias Silverio · Sep 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricJoao Zeferino

3.10

Strikes / min

0.83

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.60

57%

Strike defense

48%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.50

77%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalJoao Zeferino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Joao Zeferino(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.7|Blue -8.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetJoao Zeferino

By target zone

37% acc · 59%

Head

36% acc · 86%

71% acc · 17%

Body

33% acc · 7%

50% acc · 24%

Leg

25% acc · 7%

By position

21% acc · 28%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

70% acc · 55%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Joao Zeferino rounds

Round 1Joao Zeferino edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:11

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:53

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:48

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 67

Sig Strikes

14 / 40

40%

Sig Str %

34%

112 / 162

Total Strikes

22 / 50

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:52

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joao Zeferino	5 / 14	11 / 22	0 / 0	2
1	Rafael Natal	3 / 13	24 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Joao Zeferino	6 / 16	7 / 17	0 / 2	0
2	Rafael Natal	13 / 30	32 / 51	0 / 0	0
3	Joao Zeferino	3 / 10	4 / 11	0 / 0	0
3	Rafael Natal	13 / 24	56 / 74	1 / 1	0

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Joao Zeferino

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2