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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Eryk Anders won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1361

Elo1512

Rafael NatalvsEryk AndersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Eryk Anders won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:54

Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsEryk Anders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Eryk Anders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eryk Anders is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Eryk Anders

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1361

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Jan 15

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

latest

Eryk Anders

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricEryk Anders

3.10

Strikes / min

3.44

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

57%

Strike defense

50%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

1.83

77%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalEryk Anders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Eryk Anders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -150.9|Blue +150.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetEryk Anders

By target zone

50% acc · 57%

Head

79% acc · 96%

67% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

65% acc · 93%

Distance

77% acc · 43%

33% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

79% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Eryk Anders rounds

Round 1Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 23

Sig Strikes

23 / 29

60%

Sig Str %

79%

15 / 24

Total Strikes

23 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eryk Anders	23 / 29	23 / 29	1 / 2	0
1	Rafael Natal	14 / 23	15 / 24	0 / 1	0

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19