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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · S-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1360

Rafael NatalvsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Natal has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Chris Camozzi

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1361

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricChris Camozzi

3.10

Strikes / min

3.57

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

57%

Strike defense

56%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.27

77%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

17% acc · 17%

Head

48% acc · 58%

73% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 15%

93% acc · 39%

Leg

90% acc · 27%

By position

46% acc · 83%

Distance

57% acc · 85%

75% acc · 17%

Clinch

83% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Chris Camozzi rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:16

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:57

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:31

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 73

Sig Strikes

67 / 112

48.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

46 / 84

Total Strikes

86 / 134

2 / 12

TDs

0 / 1

17.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:44

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Camozzi	14 / 27	19 / 32	0 / 0
1	Rafael Natal	16 / 30	18 / 33	1 / 3
2	Chris Camozzi	12 / 25	20 / 34	0 / 1
2	Rafael Natal	12 / 24	19 / 31	1 / 5
3	Chris Camozzi	41 / 60	47 / 68	0 / 0
3	Rafael Natal	8 / 19	9 / 20	0 / 4

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19